Posts Tagged ‘IMI’

Over 70% Of US Metro Market Housing Markets Improve In February

February 14, 2013

Improving Market IndexThe National Association of Homebuilders recently released its Improving Markets Index for the month of February.

The report attempts to identify U.S. metropolitan areas in which the economy is improving, demonstrating “measurable and sustained growth”.

259 U.S. markets are qualified as “improving” this month, a 17-market jump from the month prior and includes participants from all 50 states as well as the District of Columbia.

Experts point to improving market conditions in at least one market in all 50 states as a strong indication that the housing recovery is gaining substantial momentum.

This increasing momentum may suggest that now may be a very good time to purchase a home.

Compared to September 2011, when there were just 12 improving metro market areas, the widespread positive movement indicates how conditions are steadily improving nationwide.

So what qualifies a market as “improving”? The NAHB uses strict criteria.

First, the group gathers data from the three separate, independent sources :

  1. Employment growth from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
  2. Housing price appreciation from Freddie Mac
  3. Single-family housing permits growth from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Next, for each of the above data sets, the National Association of Homebuilders separates for local data in each U.S. major metropolitan area.

And, lastly, armed with data, the NAHB looks for areas in which growth has occurred for all three data points for six consecutive months; and for which the most recent “bottom” is at least six months in the past.

In this way, the Improving Market Index doesn’t just measure housing market strength — it measures general economic strength.

Of the 22 markets added to the Improving Market Index in November, the following cities were included : Chico, California; Columbus, Georgia; Fort Wayne, Indiana; Topeka, Kansas; and Wenatchee, Washington.

Several markets dropped off the list, too, including Champaign, Illinois; Lebanon, Pennsylvania; and Amarillo, Texas.

The complete list of 259 metropolitan areas on February’s IMI, plus breakouts of the metropolitan areas newly added and dropped is available online at http://www.nahb.org/imi.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : December 17, 2012

December 17, 2012

Mortgage rates drop, according to Freddie MacMortgage bonds worsened last week, moving mortgage rates higher. Economic news was mostly positive and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) changed some of Wall Street expectations for future monetary policy.

Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate at 3.32 percent nationwide for borrowers willing to pay an accompanying 0.7 discount points plus closing costs. The average 15-year fixed rate mortgage rate was listed at 2.66 percent nationwide with an accompanying 0.6 discount points plus closing costs.

Both mortgage rates had climbed by week’s end, however. Mortgage rates made their best levels Monday afternoon. Between Tuesday and Friday, mortgage rates climbed.

Also last week, the National Association of Homebuilders/First American Improving Markets Index (IMI) reported 201 improving metropolitan economies nationwide. This index uses data including local employment statistics and home values to determine whether an area’s economy is “improving”.

76 new areas were added to the IMI list in December as compared to November. The geographic diversity the newly-added markets suggests an overall improvement in the national economy.

Last week’s major event, however, was the 2-day Federal Reserve meeting, which adjourned Wednesday.

The post-meeting press release after included the Fed’s commitment to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent where it’s been since December 2008. However, the Fed announced a change to in its plans to raise the Fed Funds Rate from near-zero at a future date.

Previously, the Fed had said it would raise the Fed Funds Rate beginning in mid-2015. Now, the Fed says it will start to raise rates when the national unemployment rate reaches 6.5 percent.

This week, mortgage rates have a lot to move on including Housing Starts (Wednesday) and Existing Home Sales (Thursday) from the housing sector; Jobless Claims (Thursday) from the Labor Department; and a key inflation reading from the Department of Commerce. Each has the capability to move mortgage rates.

Markets will respond to Fiscal Cliff discussions, too.

Improving Market Index : Up To 201 Cities For December 2012

December 14, 2012

December IMI includes 201 citiesLast week’s National Association of Home Builders/First American Improving Markets Index (IMI) brought positive news about U.S. housing markets and the broader U.S. economy, in general.

According to the IMI, there are now 201 U.S. markets which can be considered “improving”.

To meet this standard, a local area economy must exhibit at least six consecutive months of improvement in terms of local employment, single-family housing permits and area home prices; and, at least six months must have passed since each of these readings were at their respective low points, called troughs.

The Improving Market Index added 76 metropolitan areas in December as compared to the month prior. 45 states are now represented on the list, in addition to the District of Columbia.

The cities deemed “improving” aren’t limited to recent, high-profile hot spots such as Detroit, Michigan; and Phoenix, Arizona, either. Several of the newly-included areas for December were :

  • Atlanta, Georgia
  • Bloomfield, Illinois
  • Ithaca, New York
  • Riverside, California
  • Seattle, Washington

The geographic diversity of this month’s Improving Market Index suggests a nationwide economic recovery in progress. More jobs, a steady supply of available homes, plus rising home prices helps communities thrive.

Unfortunately, it may also mean less opportunity to buy homes as rock-bottom prices.

As sellers and home builders gain confidence in the economy, it may be more challenging for today’s buyers to get a “great deal”.  In addition, an improving, post-recession economy will likely lead mortgage rates higher, robbing home buyers of their purchasing power.

Freddie Mac says that the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate is 3.32% nationwide. In a fully-recovered economy, that rate could be 5 percent or higher. The impact on monthly housing payments would be palpable.

The National Association of Homebuilders expects more markets to join the Improving Market Index list through 2013. Today’s home buyers may want to lock in today’s low rates before economic improvement leads mortgage rates higher.

Improving Market Index Swells To 125 In November

November 7, 2012

Improving Market Index 125 MarketsThe U.S. economy continues to improve.

The National Association of Homebuilders released its Improving Markets Index Tuesday. The report attempts to identify U.S. metropolitan areas in which the economy is improving, demonstrating “measurable and sustained growth”.

125 U.S. markets are qualified as “improving” this month, a 22-market jump from the month prior and and all-time high for the index which launched late last year.

Compared to November 2011, this month’s IMI has climbed more than four-fold, rising from last year’s reading of 30. This jump suggests that housing recovery is firmly taking root, helping to generate needed jobs and economic growth across much of the country.

So what qualifies a market as “improving”? The NAHB uses strict criteria.

First, the group gathers data from the three separate, independent sources :

  1. Employment growth from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
  2. Housing price appreciation from Freddie Mac
  3. Single-family housing permits growth from the U.S. Census Bureau. 

Next, for each of the above data sets, the National Association of Homebuilders separates for local data in each U.S. major metropolitan area.

And, lastly, armed with data, the NAHB looks for areas in which growth has occurred for all three data points for six consecutive months; and for the most recent “bottom” is at least six months in the past.

In this way, the Improving Market Index doesn’t just measure housing market strength — it measures general economic strength. 

Of the 22 markets added to the Improving Market Index in November, the following cities were included : San Diego, California; Gainesville, Florida; Omaha, Nebraska; Louisville, Kentucky; and Charlotte, North Carolina.

Several markets dropped off the list, too, including Hanford, California; Orlando, Florida; Terre Haute, Indiana; and Greenville, North Carolina.

The complete list of 125 metropolitan areas on November’s IMI, plus breakouts of the metropolitan areas newly added and dropped is available online at http://www.nahb.org/imi.

103 Metro Areas On The “Improving” U.S. Markets List

October 10, 2012

NAHB Improving Market Index

It’s not just the housing market that’s improving nationwide — it’s the economy overall.

The number of U.S. metropolitan areas showing “measurable and sustained growth” climbed to 103 this month. The data is measured by the Improving Markets Index, a monthly metric from the National Association of Homebuilders.

The Improving Market Index is meant to identify which U.S. markets are experiencing broad economic growth — not just growth in terms of housing.

The index’s conclusions are based on three data series — each collected separately; each from a different division of the U.S. government; and, each tied to specific local economic conditions.

Those three data series are :

  1. Employment Statistics (from the Bureau of Labor Statistics)
  2. Home Price Growth (from Freddie Mac)
  3. Single-Family Housing Growth (from the Census Bureau)

After collating the data, the National Association of Homebuilders evaluates the reports as a group for each specific major metropolitan area.

A metropolitan area can be cited as “improving” only if the following two conditions are met. One, all three data series show expansion and/or growth as compared to 30 days prior; and, two, none of the data series have “bottomed” within the last six months.

As a result of its methodology, the Improving Market Index specifically passes over short-term growth bursts in a market, isolating for areas with long-term, sustainable growth instead.

Furthermore, “improving” cities may be more apt to outperform other U.S. cities in the months and years ahead, rendering them ideal for relocating buyers in search of long-term employment and income opportunities, as well as real estate investors in want of healthy, stable markets.

33 states are represented in the October Improving Market Index, plus the District of Columbia. 11 new areas were added to the list as compared to September and just 7 dropped off.

The newly-added areas include State College, Pennsylvania and Raleigh, North Carolina. Cities falling off the list for October include Lakeland, Florida.

The complete Improving Markets Index is available for download at the NAHB website.

Improving Market Index Climbs To 99

September 12, 2012

Improving Market Index September 2009The number of U.S. housing markets showing “measurable and sustained growth” has increased by 19 this month, according to the National Association of Homebuilders’ Improving Market Index.

The Improving Market Index is a monthly report meant to identify U.S. markets in which economic growth is occurring broadly — not just in terms of home prices.

The IMI’s conclusions are based on three separately-collected data series, each from a different division of the U.S. government and each tied to specific local economic conditions.

In this way, the Improving Market Index gives a better idea of which markets will outperform averages in the months and years ahead.

The three data series incorporated into the Improving Market Index are :

  1. Employment Statistics (from the Bureau of Labor Statistics)
  2. Home Price Growth (from Freddie Mac)
  3. Single-Family Housing Growth (from the Census Bureau)

The National Association of Homebuilders evaluate the reports for each major metropolitan area and then deems a given one “improving” if two conditions are met. First, all three data series must indicate growth in the current month and, second, at least 6 months have passed since each of the data points’ respective “bottoms”.

The IMI ignore short-term spurts, in other words, and attempts to identify those areas showing long-term, sustainable growth. For relocating home buyers, “improving” cities may also offer better long-term employment and income opportunities. 

33 states are represented in the September Improving Market Index, as well as the District of Columbia. 31 new areas were added to the list as compared to August and just 12 dropped off.

The newly-added areas include Sacramento, California; Jacksonville, Florida; and Waco, Texas. Cities falling off the list for September include Dover, Delaware.

The complete Improving Markets Index is available for download at the NAHB website. For a better gauge of what’s happening on a local level, however, talk to a local real estate agent.

Improving Market Index Spans 32 States, District Of Columbia

August 9, 2012

Improving Market Index

80 U.S. metropolitan markets are showing “measurable and sustained growth” this month, according to the National Association of Homebuilders’ Improving Market Index.

It’s good news for the economy and good news for housing. 

The NAHB’s Improving Market Index is meant to identify U.S. markets in expansion. It’s a composite of the three distinct data sets which, as a group, present a more holistic view of a given city’s growth :

  1. From the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the IMI tracks employment figures
  2. From Freddie Mac, the IMI tracks home price data
  3. From the Census Bureau, the IMI tracks single-family building permits

The home builder trade group compiles this data and, in order for a given metropolitan area to earn the label “improving”, the area must meet two specific growth conditions.

First, in a given city, each of the above data sets must show growth or expansion in the current calendar month. If one of the three do not show growth, the city cannot qualify.

Second, in a given city, at least six months must have passed since the most recent trough of all of the above metrics.  It’s this second clause that can make the Improving Market Index meaningful.

By focusing on long-term growth trends within a city, the IMI ignores “blips” and seasonal irregularities. 

The August IMI shows 80 improving markets nationwide, a 4-city decrease from July 2012. 5 new cities were added to the index including Miami, Florida; Terre Haute, Indiana; and Lubbock, Texas. Nine cities fell off the list.

Overall, 32 states are represented in the IMI, and the District of Columbia, too.

For today’s home buyers, the IMI doesn’t provide much actionable information. It doesn’t show home prices, for example, nor the current demand for homes. What it shows is the strength of local economies, though, and in many cases, as the economy heats up, so do home prices.

The complete Improving Markets Index is available for download at the NAHB website.

84 U.S. Markets Improving In July

July 11, 2012

Improving Market Index July 2012

Where economic growth goes, housing growth often follows.

That’s why it’s good news for homeowners that 84 U.S. metropolitan areas are showing “measurable and sustained growth” this month, according to the National Association of Homebuilders’ Improving Market Index.

The Improving Market Index is a derivative report, based on the results of three separate data series which examine a city’s local economy.

The data series used in the IMI are :

  1. Employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
  2. Home price data from Freddie Mac
  3. One-unit building permits from the Census Bureau

The NAHB compiles this data monthly, assigning a given metropolitan area the label “improving” if the following two conditions are met. First, all three data series above must show growth or expansion in the current month.

Second, at least six months must have passed since any of the above that area’s most recent economic “bottom”.

Because of this second clause, the IMI is focused on long-term trends in city growth, singling out only those markets in which sustained economic growth is occurring. The six-month requirement causes “blips” of growth remain ignored, and uncounted. 

The July IMI showed 84 improving markets nationwide, a 4-city increase over June 2012. 11 new cities were added to the index including Jackson, Michigan; Springfield, Massachusetts; and, Houston, Texas. Seven cities fell off the list.

32 states are represented in this month’s IMI, and the District of Columbia, too.

For Utah home buyers, there isn’t much actionable information in the Improving Market Index. We don’t see how many homes were sold in the month prior, for example. Nor do we see how quickly homes are selling in a particular ZIP code. But what the IMI can provide is a broad look at whether a local economy has found its footing. 

When economies are strong, it can create competition for homes which can drive up home sales prices. 

The complete Improving Markets Index is available for download at the NAHB website. But, for a better feel of what’s happening on a local level, talk to a real estate agent.

31 States Represented In June’s Improving Market Index

June 14, 2012

Improving Markets Index June 2012The number of U.S. housing markets showing “measurable and sustained growth” slipped by 20 in June, according to the National Association of Homebuilders.

The Improving Market Index is meant to identify housing markets in which economic growth is occurring as a whole — not just in the real estate space.

By using three separate, independently-collected data series, each tied to local economic conditions, the Improving Market Index takes a broader view of the housing market than other housing market indicators — the Case-Shiller Index, for example — which are often singularly tied to housing contracts.

The Improving Market Index tracks three distinct data series :

  1. From the Bureau of Labor Statistics : Employment statistics
  2. From Freddie Mac : Home price growth
  3. From the Census Bureau : Single-family housing growth

A given metropolitan area is categorized as “improving” by the National Association of Homebuilders if all three data series indicate growth at least six months after that area’s most recent economic trough.

In other words, the Improving Market Index looks past head-fakes of recovery, instead in search of long-term, sustainable growth.

This is one reason why its list of included cities is so fluid. It’s difficult for a metropolitan area to meet the Improving Market Index’s inclusion requirements month-after-month in a post-recession economy.

The Improving Market Index dropped to 80 in June, says the home builder trade group.

The list includes 28 new entrants, with forty-eight markets removed as compared to May. 31 states are represented nationwide.

For home buyers in Utah , the Improving Markets Index is a non-actionable report but it does do a good job of highlighting the local nature of real estate. For example, Columbus, Indiana was added as an Improving Market in June. Yet, Indianapolis, Indiana — located just 46 miles away — was downgraded from the same list. 

Economies vary by locale.

The complete Improving Markets Index is available for download at the NAHB website. For a better gauge of what’s happening on the local level , though, talk to a local real estate agent.

8-Fold Increase In “Improving Markets” Since September

May 10, 2012

Improving Markets IndexThe economic recovery continues nationwide, but the recovery’s an uneven one.

Some metropolitan areas are faring very well this year, posting measurable gains in both employment and housing. Other metropolitan areas, by contrast, are struggling.

To help identify those markets in which growth is occurring, the National Association of Homebuilders created the Improving Market Index, a metric analyzing three separate, independently-collected data series “indicative of improving economic health”.

The IMI’s three collected data series are :

  1. Employment Growth (as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics)
  2. Home Price Growth (as published by Freddie Mac)
  3. Single-Family Housing Growth (as published by the Census Bureau)

A metropolitan area is considered to be “improving” if all three indicators show growth at least six months after the respective area’s most recent trough, or “bottoming out”.

In May, there are exactly 100 U.S. markets that qualify for the NAHB’s Improving Market Index, down from 101 last month but higher by more than 800% from the reading in September 2011, the index’s inaugural release.

17 areas were added to the Improving Market Index list this month including Phoenix, Arizona; Ann Arbor, Michigan; and Bend, Oregon. 18 areas were removed from the May IMI.

83 metropolitan areas remained from April.

There is little actionable information in the Improving Markets Index but the report does a good job of highlighting how “real estate markets” can’t be summarized on a national level and remain relevant to everyday home buyers and sellers across Utah and nationwide. For example, Fort Collins, Colorado is listed as an Improving Market. However, Greeley, Colorado — located just 30 miles away — was just downgraded from the same list. 

Home values and economies vary by region, by state, by city, by neighborhood, and even by street.

The complete Improving Markets Index can be viewed at the NAHB website but for the best read of what’s happening in your neighborhood, talk to a local real estate agent.